What are the likely impacts of COVID on India’s foreign policy?
-
Impact on Regional Supremacy:
-
India’s Supremacy at the regional level (in South Asia) will decline in the future.
-
India’s traditional primacy in the region was built on a mix of material aid, political influence, and historical ties.
-
The Pandemic has reduced India’s ability to materially help its immediate neighbourhood for development assistance and political autonomy.
-
As a result, South Asian states are likely to shift towards China for financial support.
-
-
Impact on Quad and Indo-Pacific:
-
The pandemic could adversely impact India’s ability to contribute to the Indo-Pacific and the Quad.
-
COVID-19 will prevent any ambitious military spending or modernization plan.
-
It further limits the country’s attention on global diplomacy and regional geopolitics.
-
With reduced military spending and lesser diplomatic attention to regional geopolitics, India’s ability to project power and contribute to the growth of the Quad will be uncertain.
-
India’s inability to take a lead role and China attracting smaller states away from the Indo-Pacific with aid and threats can change the balance of power in favor of China.
-
-
Focus on domestic issues rather than foreign policy:
-
Shift in focus on domestic politics in the coming years by the ruling government will reduce India’s willingness for new foreign policy innovation or initiatives.
-
Economic distress, a fall in foreign direct investment and industrial production, and a rise in unemployment will compel the center to focus on COVID-19 recovery. This will limit India’s strategic ambitions in global space.
-
-
Impact on SAARC:
-
India’s foreign policy may also become more accommodative, reconciliatory, and cooperative in the neighbourhood. (SAARC nations).
-
The Pandemic has forced India to reimagine, the friend-enemy equations in global geopolitics. While the US was hesitant to assist India during the pandemic Pakistan and China offered aid to India.
-
SAARC nations should collectively focus on ‘regional health multilateralism’ to promote mutual assistance and joint action on health emergencies.
-
-
Impact on Strategic Autonomy:
-
India’s freedom to pursue Strategic autonomy might be reduced. For instance, a post-COVID-19 India might find it harder to resist demands of a closer military relationship with the U.S.
-