Contemporary Threats in 2022 – UPSC GS2

Threats to World:
  • Future of democracy is under threat:
    • Rise of authoritarian rulers in many countries.
    • The attack on democratic tenets in recent years.
    • America, seen as a bulwark for democracy, has become weak.
  • China’s challenge to the existing international order:
    • With increasing economic prosperity, China demands to be recognized as equal to the US in world affairs.
    • Militarily, China is openly challenging U.S. supremacy in many areas, including ‘state-of-the-art weaponry’ such as hypersonic technology.
    • China’s unwelcome attitude towards Hong Kong and the existent threat for Taiwan posed by China could become one of the flashpoints of conflict in 2022.
    • Indo-Pacific has emerged as a conflict zone due to China’s assertiveness. This could lead to new tensions in the Asia-Pacific region in 2022.
  • Russia-Ukraine conflict: With Ukraine backed by the U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces, the Russia-Ukraine conflict could result in a possible war or conflict. In the past three decades, NATO has expanded its reach almost 1,000 miles to the east in violation of an earlier tacit understanding. Russia might not be willing to concede more.
  • New Flash points: For example, unrest in Kazakhstan, which was one of the more stable Central Asian nations. It demonstrates increasing friction between the U.S.-led West and its principal opponents, Russia and China.
Threats to India in 2022:
  • Resurgence of radical Islamist activities in Afghanistan and Indonesia:
    • Developments in Afghanistan have fuelled the ambitions of quite a few ‘anti-state militant groups’ across the region. For example, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). In Indonesia, The Jemaah Islamiyah has reportedly become more active.
  • India’s border issues with China are likely to intensify in 2022:
    • The transgressions across the Line of Actual Control in different sectors in Ladakh could well be expanded in 2022. Because, China is disturbed by India’s decision to join QUAD, which is seen as an anti-China coalition.
  • Indian diplomacy will be under severe test in both regions, Central Asia and West Asia.
    • In Central Asia, India will be challenged on how best to manage its traditional friendship with Russia with the pronounced tilt seen more recently in India-U.S. relations.
    • In West Asia, the challenge for India is how to manage its membership of the Second Quad (India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the U.S.) with the conflicting interests of different players in the region.

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