Ensemble Prediction Systems


  • The Ministry of Earth Science (MoES) has launched a new system to generate more accurate and area specific forecast of extreme weather events including rains, heat wave and cold wave.
  • The new EPS system has been developed by three bodies under Ministry of Earth Sciences viz.
  • Indian Meteorological Department (IMD),
  • National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) and
    • Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.

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  • The most salient feature of new EPS is its high resolution for short-medium range weather forecasts. Under the new system, the area of spatial resolution (currently 23 km grid scale) will come down to 12 km. This would help sending out district level warning and forecast extreme weather events as before as five days.
  • In its calculations, the system will use a newly procured 8 petaflops high-power computing system.
  • The new system will generate more accurate and better area specific forecast of extreme weather events in comparison to current models by quantifying the uncertainties in the weather forecast.
  • The probabilistic forecasts of severe weather events at 12 km grid scale would greatly help the disaster management authorities and other users in making better emergency response decisions.
  • The accurate weather forecasts would help farmers to damage crops and also support administration to take disasters prevention steps beforehand.

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