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ports shows that TFR declined from 2.4 to 2.2 during this period.
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Fertility declined in all major states : In 2011, 10 states had a fertility rate below the replacement rate. This increased to 14 states.
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The annual natural population growth rate also declined from 1.47 to 1.38 per cent during this period.
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Due to population momentum effect, a result of more people entering the reproductive age group of 15-49 years due to the past high-level of fertility, population stabilisation will take some time.
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The UN Population Division has estimated that India’s population would possibly peak at 161 crore around 2061.
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Recently, IHME estimated that it will peak at 160 crore in 2048.
Declining sex ratio at birth: Cause for concern
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The SRS reports show that sex ratio at birth in India, measured as the number of females per 1,000 males, declined marginally from 906 in 2011 to 899 in 2018.
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Biologically normal sex ratio at birth is 950 females to 1,000 males.
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The UNFPA State of World Population 2020 estimated the sex ratio at birth in India as 910, lower than all the countries in the world except China.
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This is a cause for concern for following 2 reasons:
1) This adverse ratio results in a gross imbalance in the number of men and women.
2) Impact on marriage systems as well as other harms to women.
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Increasing female education and economic prosperity help to improve the ratio.
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It is hoped that a balanced sex ratio at birth could be realised over time, although this does not seem to be happening during the period 2011-18.
Conclusion
In conclusion, there is an urgent need to reach young people both for reproductive health education and services as well as to cultivate gender equity norms. This could reduce the effect of population momentum and accelerate progress towards reaching a more normal sex-ratio at birth. India’s population future depends on it.