Population in 2100 : Lancet Report – UPSC GS1

  • The world population will peak much earlier than previously estimated.
  • It projects the peak at 9.73 billion in 2064, which is 36 years earlier than the 11 billion peaks projected for 2100 by last year’s UN report World Population Prospects.
  • For 2100, the new report projects a decline to 8.79 billion from the 2064 peak.
  • Nigeria is forecast to have continued population growth through 2100 and was expected to be the second-most populous country by then.
  • For India, the report projects a peak population of 1.6 billion in 2048, up from 1.38 billion in 2017.
  • By 2100, the population is projected to decline by 32% to 1.09 billion.
  • Conventional wisdom is that though a decline in population is expected, it is expected to begin only around 2046.
  • Reasons for fall
    • The sharper fall is due to the assumption that all women globally will have much higher access to contraception and education.
    • This scenario will lead to a sharper reduction in the Total Fertility Rate, a metric that shows on average how many children a woman must have to keep replenishing the population.
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