How Monsoon Prediction works? – UPSC GS1

2 models of Monsoon Prediction are:

  • Dynamic monsoon model
  • Ensemble model
Dynamic Monsoon Model:
  • The dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the weather on powerful computers (supercomputers) and extrapolating it over particular timeframes.
  • This modern forecasting model is being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune.
  • So far it has achieved only 60% accuracy in forecasting the monsoon.
  • This method is widely used in forecasting weather over a few days. But using it to forecast the annual monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.
Ensemble Model:
  • Currently, IMD relies on an ensemble model for forecasting monsoon.
  • This traditional model uses a statistical technique.
  • It uses an average of 6 meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level pressure.
  • These meteorological values are traditionally derived from century-old meteorological data linked to the historical performance of the monsoon.
  • However, this traditional approach in has failed to predict monsoon recent decades (for instance in 2002 and 2004) leading meteorologists to call for a new, modern forecasting system.



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