2 models of Monsoon Prediction are:
- Dynamic monsoon model
- Ensemble model
Dynamic Monsoon Model:
- The dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the weather on powerful computers (supercomputers) and extrapolating it over particular timeframes.
- This modern forecasting model is being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune.
- So far it has achieved only 60% accuracy in forecasting the monsoon.
- This method is widely used in forecasting weather over a few days. But using it to forecast the annual monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.
- Currently, IMD relies on an ensemble model for forecasting monsoon.
- This traditional model uses a statistical technique.
- It uses an average of 6 meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level pressure.
- These meteorological values are traditionally derived from century-old meteorological data linked to the historical performance of the monsoon.
- However, this traditional approach in has failed to predict monsoon recent decades (for instance in 2002 and 2004) leading meteorologists to call for a new, modern forecasting system.