Context: The Chinese intrusions in Ladakh, resultant violence and the deadlock in negotiations, indicates the arrival of a worrisome two-front situation for India.
A two-front challenge for India:
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From Pakistan’s side:
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Deployments: Reports says that Pakistan had moved 20,000 troops into Gilgit-Baltistan, matching the Chinese deployments in Eastern Ladakh.
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Ceasefire violations by Pakistan: four-fold increase between 2017 and 2019.
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Hybrid conflict by Pakistan: using militants and limited military action in Jammu and Kashmir if hostilities between India and china broke out in Northern border areas.
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Joint cooperation between China-Pakistan:
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Recent Shaheen IX Pakistan-China joint exercise shows alignment in their strategic thinking.
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China accounted for 73% of the total arms imports of Pakistan between 2015-2019.
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Challenges for India: India is facing two dilemmas- of resources and strategy.
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Resources: India has only about half combat squadrons needed for two-front war; it is neither practical nor feasible to build the level of capability tow engage at both fronts.
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Strategy: Decision on allocation of resources will require the military to rethink its strategy for the western border.
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While a defensive approach may encourage Pakistan to continue with its actions in J&K with a level of impunity.
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Way forward:
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Developing a Security Doctrine: with close interaction with the political leadership.
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Capacity building: Ensuring the right balance with limited economic resources, based on a detailed assessment of China and Pakistan’s war-fighting strategies.
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Focus on future technologies: such as robotics, artificial intelligence, cyber, electronic warfare, etc. along with major platforms such as aircraft, ships, and tanks, etc.
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Using Diplomacy to its advantage:
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Ensuring a friendly and cooperative relationship with neighbouring countries.
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Strengthening current engagement with West Asian nations, including Iran, to ensure energy security, increase maritime cooperation and enhance goodwill in the extended neighbourhood.
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Balancing India’s relationship with the USA and Russia as Russia could play a role in defusing the severity of a regional opposition against India.
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Pacifying aggrieved citizens of J & K: by political outreach which could help in thwarting attempts of Pakistan to raise militancy in the valley.
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Reducing the effect of a collusive Sino-Pakistan containment strategy: Through potential rapprochement with Pakistan provided, it can be persuaded to put an end to terrorist infiltration.